Superpower Futures
The BRICs
Image source: Wikipedia.com
There are four new, emerging superpowers in the modern world, the 'BRICs'- Brazil, Russia, India and China. These four countries are rising as major powers because of their large markets, fast-growing economies and increasing military strengths. They have some of the fastest growing economies in the world, and with that comes influence and power. Some have also suggested that the EU may become a superpower during the 21st century for many of the same reasons.
Mini case study: Development or dependency?
As the BRIC countries rise in dominance, this could provide an opportunity for the least developed countries to develop relationships with wealthier countries. China's interest in Africa has increased over the last decade, where it has invested several billions of dollars. China has helped develop infrastructure such as roads and rail networks in Africa, as well as investing in Zambian copper mines and iron ore mines in Gabon, and oil-rich countries such as Sudan, Congo, Equatorial Guinea Nigeria and Angola. However some critics argue that this investment has not actually benefited these nations, as Africa is still exporting its raw materials cheaply, and the investment has brought few jobs as China sends over its own workers rather than hiring local labour. (Edexcel, 2008)
Mini case study: Development or dependency?
As the BRIC countries rise in dominance, this could provide an opportunity for the least developed countries to develop relationships with wealthier countries. China's interest in Africa has increased over the last decade, where it has invested several billions of dollars. China has helped develop infrastructure such as roads and rail networks in Africa, as well as investing in Zambian copper mines and iron ore mines in Gabon, and oil-rich countries such as Sudan, Congo, Equatorial Guinea Nigeria and Angola. However some critics argue that this investment has not actually benefited these nations, as Africa is still exporting its raw materials cheaply, and the investment has brought few jobs as China sends over its own workers rather than hiring local labour. (Edexcel, 2008)
Issues for the BRICs?
Image source: Edexcel
However with increased economies, influence and power comes new problems and struggles. The image on the left demonstrates the eco-footprint of the world's main economies- what happens if or when the eco-footprint of the world's emerging superpowers reaches or exceeds that of the developed world? Whose responsibility will it be to fix the issues associated with this? (Edexcel, 2008)
Declining Superpowers?
Image source: Edexcel
The rise of new superpowers challenges the hegemony of the oldest and most dominant superpower, the U.S.A. The U.S.A. will not decline in power dramatically, however its influence will lesson as other countries become more dominant. The number of TNCs in the U.S.A. is falling while the number of TNCs in BRIC countries continues to rise, meaning BRIC economies are growing at an accelerated rate.
There is some unease amongst BRIC countries however about the dominance of 'older' superpowers such as the U.S.A. in IGOs, meaning despite their growing economies and dominance, the BRICs still have relatively little global decision-making power, which could inhibit their growth in the future. (Edexcel, 2008)
There is some unease amongst BRIC countries however about the dominance of 'older' superpowers such as the U.S.A. in IGOs, meaning despite their growing economies and dominance, the BRICs still have relatively little global decision-making power, which could inhibit their growth in the future. (Edexcel, 2008)
A Multi-Polar World and Future Conflict?
As so many countries rise to power, the future could potentially be 'multi-polar'- where there are several superpowers and major powers. Would these superpowers and major powers likely work in harmony for an agreed agenda? Unlikely. It is thought that a multi-polar world would bring conflict and tension, based on three main agendas:
Strategic Agenda:
The strategic agenda involves anything military, and global conflict. The U.S.A. currently dominates foreign policy and its 'War on Terror' brings it into direct conflict with the Islamic world and potentially the oil-rich, wealthy Gulf states that could potentially hold a lot of power in the future. This, in turn, brings them into conflict with Russia and China who would support Iran due to their opposition to the Gulf Wars, as well as the U.S.A.'s opposition to Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Economic Agenda:
Global economic growth place increased pressure on natural resources, and this could potentially lead to conflict over these resources in the future. Russia, Africa and the Gulf states are likely to hold much power in this situation as these are the places where there are still large reserves of many natural resources. This will increase tension as superpowers and emerging powers clash over who has the rights to access these resources and how best to use them.
Climate Agenda:
The U.S.A., E.U. and the BRICS do not share the same views on environmental issues, leading to conflict. With so many key players with so much at stake, climate is a tricky topic between superpowers and emerging powers. If global restrictions were to be put in place, it could affect the growth of some countries which heavily rely on industry for their economy. (Edexcel, 2008)
Strategic Agenda:
The strategic agenda involves anything military, and global conflict. The U.S.A. currently dominates foreign policy and its 'War on Terror' brings it into direct conflict with the Islamic world and potentially the oil-rich, wealthy Gulf states that could potentially hold a lot of power in the future. This, in turn, brings them into conflict with Russia and China who would support Iran due to their opposition to the Gulf Wars, as well as the U.S.A.'s opposition to Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Economic Agenda:
Global economic growth place increased pressure on natural resources, and this could potentially lead to conflict over these resources in the future. Russia, Africa and the Gulf states are likely to hold much power in this situation as these are the places where there are still large reserves of many natural resources. This will increase tension as superpowers and emerging powers clash over who has the rights to access these resources and how best to use them.
Climate Agenda:
The U.S.A., E.U. and the BRICS do not share the same views on environmental issues, leading to conflict. With so many key players with so much at stake, climate is a tricky topic between superpowers and emerging powers. If global restrictions were to be put in place, it could affect the growth of some countries which heavily rely on industry for their economy. (Edexcel, 2008)